Thesis Tracker

Maintain investment theses with structured tracking of pillars, evidence, and catalysts.

Step 1: Load or Create Thesis

New thesis — collect:

• Ticker + market (BYMA/US/crypto)
• Direction: Long or Short
• Core thesis: 1-2 sentences (e.g., "Long GGAL — margin expansion from rate normalization + deposit growth as inflation drops")
• 3-5 key pillars (supporting arguments)
• 3-5 key risks (what invalidates the thesis)
• Catalysts with dates (earnings, regulatory, macro events)
• Target price + time horizon
• Stop-loss trigger (price or fundamental)
• Position size (% of portfolio)

Existing thesis: load from project files or ask user for current state.

Step 2: Pillar Scorecard

Maintain running scorecard:

Trend values: Confirming / Stable / Concerning / Broken

Step 3: Update Log

For each new data point:

• Date: when it happened
• Event: what changed (earnings, macro, competitor, regulatory)
• Impact: which pillar affected, how (strengthens/weakens/neutral)
• Action: hold / add / trim / exit
• Conviction: High / Medium / Low (updated)

Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Step 5: AR-Specific Tracking (if applicable)

For CEDEARs:

• Track underlying ADR price + CEDEAR price + CCL implicit
• Calculate premium/discount vs theoretical parity
• Flag when premium >5% or discount >3%

For bonds (soberanos/corporativos):

• Track TIR, duration, paridad
• Spread vs benchmark (US Treasury or similar)
• Next coupon date and amortization schedule

For CCL/MEP:

• Track spread (CCL - MEP) / MEP
• Settlement dates (T+1 vs T+2)
• Parking requirement compliance

Step 6: Thesis Health Summary

Output format:

═══ THESIS: [TICKER] — [LONG/SHORT] ═══
Core: [thesis statement]
Conviction: [High/Medium/Low] (was: [previous])
Pillars: [N/M on track]  Risks: [N/M active]
Next catalyst: [event] on [date]
Last updated: [date]

⚠️ ALERTS:
- [pillar X] showing weakness: [evidence]
- [catalyst Y] missed deadline

Important Notes

• Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming
• If >50% of pillars are Concerning or Broken → force re-evaluation
• Quarterly review mandatory even if nothing dramatic happened
• For portfolio-wide review: show all theses sorted by conviction, flag any with deteriorating trend
• A thesis without a falsification condition is not a thesis — reject it