Systems Thinking Skill

Goal

To understand the system as a whole, specifically focusing on relationships, feedback loops, and delays, rather than looking at isolated parts. Use this when solving stubborn, recurring problems or designing robust architectures.

Steps

1. The Iceberg Model Analysis

   • Events (React): What just happened? (The bug/incident)
   • Patterns (Anticipate): What trends have been happening over time?
   • Structures (Design): What influenced the patterns? (Architecture, Org chart, Incentives)
   • Mental Models (Transform): What assumptions/beliefs keep the system in place?

2. Causal Loop Diagramming (CLD)

   • Identify variables (e.g., "Code Quality", "Velocity", "Tech Debt").
   • Map relationships (S = Same direction, O = Opposite direction).
   • Identify Loops:
     • Reinforcing (R): Exponential growth/collapse (Virtuous/Vicious cycles).
     • Balancing (B): Goal-seeking/Stabilizing.
   • Output: Mermaid diagram or text-based CLD.

3. Identify Leverage Points

   • Where is the intervention point with the highest impact?
   • Examples: Changing a buffer size (Low leverage) vs Changing the goal of the system (High leverage).

4. Archetype Matching

   • Does this match a known system trap?
   • Examples: "Fixes that Fail", "Shifting the Burden", "Tragedy of the Commons", "Drifting Goals".

Output Format

A strategic analysis document at docs/strategic/SYSTEM_ANALYSIS.md containing the Iceberg analyis and Causal Loop Diagrams.

Constraints

• Look for circular causality, not linear (A causes B, but B also influences A).
• Watch out for delays in the system—they cause oscillation.