strategic-bet

# Strategic Bet: [Bet Name]

**Bet ID**: SB-[YYYY]-[NNN]
**Owner**: [Single accountable person]
**Date Formulated**: [Date]
**Status**: Proposed / Active / Validated / Invalidated / Pivoted
**Product**: [Product name - optional, for multi-product organizations]

## The Bet

[What we believe will create value - 1-2 clear sentences]

> "We bet that [doing X] for [customer segment] will result in [outcome] because [rationale]."

## Customer Insight (Principle #3)

**Who**: [Target customer segment]
**Pain**: [What problem they have]

### Customer Evidence
| Evidence Type | Source | Date | Key Finding |
|---------------|--------|------|-------------|
| [Interview/Survey/Usage/Support] | [Source] | [Date] | [Finding] |
| [Type] | [Source] | [Date] | [Finding] |
| [Type] | [Source] | [Date] | [Finding] |

**Evidence Strength**: Strong/Moderate/Weak/None
**Confidence Level**: Low / Medium / High

*If evidence is weak, document plan to strengthen before major commitment.*

## Market Dynamics

**Timing**: Why this bet makes sense now
- [Market trend 1]
- [Market trend 2]

**Competition**: How this positions us
- [Competitive dynamic]

**Window**: How long this opportunity exists
- [Timeline consideration]

## Business Intent

**Strategic Goal**: [Which company goal this serves]
**Revenue Potential**: [Expected revenue impact]
**Strategic Value**: [Non-revenue value - positioning, learning, etc.]

## Explicit Assumptions

| # | Assumption | Confidence | How We'll Validate | Validation Timeline |
|---|------------|------------|-------------------|---------------------|
| 1 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |
| 2 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |
| 3 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |
| 4 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |

**Riskiest Assumption**: [Which assumption, if wrong, kills this bet]

## Opportunity Cost

**What we're NOT doing by choosing this bet:**
- [Alternative 1] - [What we give up]
- [Alternative 2] - [What we give up]

**Why this bet is worth the tradeoff:**
[Rationale]

## Success Criteria

| Metric | Baseline | Target | Timeframe | Measurement |
|--------|----------|--------|-----------|-------------|
| [Leading] | [Current] | [Target] | T+1 month | [How] |
| [Mid] | [Current] | [Target] | T+3 months | [How] |
| [Lagging] | [Current] | [Target] | T+6 months | [How] |

## Investment Required

**Resources**:
- Team: [Who/how many]
- Duration: [Expected timeline]
- Budget: [If applicable]

**Dependencies**:
- [Dependency 1]
- [Dependency 2]

## Scalability Consideration (Principle #8)

| Scale Level | Works? | What Changes | Investment Needed |
|-------------|--------|--------------|-------------------|
| Current (1x) | Yes | Baseline | Current |
| 2x | Yes/Partial/No | [What changes] | [Investment] |
| 10x | Yes/Partial/No | [What changes] | [Investment] |

**Scale Assumption**: [Key assumption about scale]
**Breaking Point**: [At what scale does this approach break?]

## Re-decision Points

| Checkpoint | Date | Criteria | Possible Actions |
|------------|------|----------|------------------|
| Early signal | [Date] | [What we look for] | Continue / Pivot / Stop |
| Mid-point | [Date] | [What we look for] | Double down / Maintain / Wind down |
| End | [Date] | [What we look for] | Scale / Iterate / Abandon |

## Pivot Options

If this bet doesn't work, potential pivots:
1. [Pivot option 1]
2. [Pivot option 2]