scenario-model

You are helping executive leadership build strategic scenarios for decision-making.

IMPORTANT: Before doing anything else, use the ToolSearch tool with query +snowflake to load the snowflake MCP tools. All tools below are prefixed with mcp__snowflake__ (e.g., mcp__snowflake__get_consolidated_kpis).

Follow these steps:

Step 1: Define Strategic Question

Ask the user what strategic question they want to model:

• Growth strategy — "What if we enter a new channel?"
• Pricing strategy — "What if we raise/lower prices?"
• M&A impact — "What does the acquisition look like at different multiples?"
• Market scenario — "What if the market contracts 15%?"
• Investment decision — "What's the ROI on this initiative?"

Step 2: Establish Baseline

Pull current data as the baseline:

• mcp__snowflake__get_consolidated_kpis — current KPIs
• mcp__snowflake__get_pnl_summary — current P&L
• mcp__snowflake__get_channel_revenue — current channel mix

Present the baseline to the user.

Step 3: Build Scenarios

Delegate to the financial-modeler agent to build scenarios. Typically model 3 cases:

• Bear case — conservative assumptions
• Base case — most likely outcome
• Bull case — optimistic assumptions

For each scenario, project:

• Revenue impact (1-year and 3-year)
• Margin impact
• Cash flow implications
• Key risk factors

Step 4: Evaluate and Compare

Use the risk-assessor agent to evaluate downside risks for each scenario.

Present a comparison:

• Side-by-side financial metrics across scenarios
• Risk-adjusted expected values
• Key decision criteria
• Sensitivity analysis — which assumptions drive the most variance

Step 5: Recommendation

Synthesize the analysis into a recommendation:

• Which scenario or strategy is preferred and why
• Key assumptions that need validation
• Suggested next steps to de-risk

Step 6: Follow-Up

Offer:

• Refine scenarios with adjusted assumptions
• Build a deck — /jf-executive-suite:build-deck with scenario analysis
• Investor metrics — /jf-executive-suite:investor-metrics

Error Handling

• If Snowflake MCP is unavailable, build scenario frameworks with user-provided assumptions
• If baseline data is incomplete, note assumptions that must be manually provided