Agent skill

risk-management

Risk matrices, assessment patterns, and mitigation strategies. Reference this skill when assessing project risks.

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npx add-skill https://github.com/majiayu000/claude-skill-registry/tree/main/skills/data/risk-management

SKILL.md

Risk Management Skill

Project Autopilot - Risk assessment and mitigation patterns

Copyright (c) 2026 Jeremy McSpadden jeremy@fluxlabs.net

Comprehensive patterns for project risk management.


Risk Framework

Risk Management Process

┌─────────────┐    ┌─────────────┐    ┌─────────────┐
│  Identify   │ →  │   Analyze   │ →  │   Plan      │
│   Risks     │    │   & Score   │    │  Response   │
└─────────────┘    └─────────────┘    └─────────────┘
       ↑                                     │
       │           ┌─────────────┐           │
       └───────────│   Monitor   │←──────────┘
                   │  & Review   │
                   └─────────────┘

Risk Equation

Risk Exposure = Probability × Impact × (1 - Mitigation Effectiveness)

Risk Identification

Technical Risks

Risk Area Common Risks Indicators
Architecture Scalability limits, coupling Load tests, complexity metrics
Dependencies Breaking changes, outages Changelog frequency, uptime
Security Vulnerabilities, data exposure Audit results, CVE alerts
Performance Bottlenecks, latency Response times, resource usage
Integration API compatibility, data sync Error rates, timeout frequency

Project Risks

Risk Area Common Risks Indicators
Scope Creep, unclear requirements Change requests, backlog growth
Schedule Delays, unrealistic estimates Burndown variance, velocity
Budget Overruns, unexpected costs Actual vs estimate, burn rate
Quality Bugs, technical debt Defect rate, code coverage
Communication Misalignment, silos Meeting frequency, blockers

Resource Risks

Risk Area Common Risks Indicators
Skills Knowledge gaps, learning curves Task completion time, questions
Availability Competing priorities, absences Capacity utilization, PTO
Turnover Key person dependency Bus factor, documentation
Vendors Reliability, support quality SLA compliance, response time

External Risks

Risk Area Common Risks Indicators
Market Competition, demand shifts Market research, analytics
Regulatory Compliance changes Industry news, legal updates
Economic Budget cuts, funding Company financials, news
Technology Platform changes, deprecations Roadmaps, announcements

Risk Scoring

Probability Matrix

Level Score Criteria
Rare 1 Has never happened
Unlikely 2 Has happened once before
Possible 3 Has happened occasionally
Likely 4 Happens regularly
Almost Certain 5 Expected to happen

Impact Matrix

Level Score Schedule Cost Quality
Minimal 1 < 1 day < $100 Cosmetic
Minor 2 1-3 days $100-500 Minor defect
Moderate 3 1-2 weeks $500-2K Functionality
Major 4 2-4 weeks $2K-10K Major failure
Severe 5 > 1 month > $10K Project failure

Risk Score Matrix

                    IMPACT
           1    2    3    4    5
        ┌────┬────┬────┬────┬────┐
      5 │  5 │ 10 │ 15 │ 20 │ 25 │
        ├────┼────┼────┼────┼────┤
P     4 │  4 │  8 │ 12 │ 16 │ 20 │
R       ├────┼────┼────┼────┼────┤
O     3 │  3 │  6 │  9 │ 12 │ 15 │
B       ├────┼────┼────┼────┼────┤
      2 │  2 │  4 │  6 │  8 │ 10 │
        ├────┼────┼────┼────┼────┤
      1 │  1 │  2 │  3 │  4 │  5 │
        └────┴────┴────┴────┴────┘

🟢 1-4:  Low - Accept/Monitor
🟡 5-9:  Medium - Mitigate
🟠 10-15: High - Priority mitigation
🔴 16-25: Critical - Immediate action

Response Strategies

Strategy Selection Guide

Strategy When to Use Cost Risk Reduction
Avoid Unacceptable risk High 100%
Mitigate Reducible risk Medium 30-80%
Transfer Outsourceable risk Medium 50-90%
Accept Low impact/probability Low 0%

Avoid

Eliminate the risk by changing approach.

markdown
**Risk:** Third-party auth service reliability
**Strategy:** Build authentication in-house
**Actions:**
1. Implement JWT-based auth
2. Use proven libraries (Passport.js)
3. Add multi-factor authentication

**Cost:** +2 weeks development
**Risk Reduction:** 100%

Mitigate

Reduce probability or impact.

markdown
**Risk:** Database performance degradation
**Strategy:** Implement caching and optimization
**Actions:**
1. Add Redis caching layer
2. Optimize slow queries
3. Implement connection pooling
4. Add read replicas

**Cost:** +1 week development
**Risk Reduction:** 70%

Transfer

Shift risk to another party.

markdown
**Risk:** Server infrastructure management
**Strategy:** Use managed services
**Actions:**
1. Migrate to Vercel/AWS managed
2. Use managed database (Supabase)
3. Implement monitoring (Datadog)

**Cost:** ~$200/month
**Risk Reduction:** 80%

Accept

Acknowledge and prepare contingency.

markdown
**Risk:** Minor browser compatibility issues
**Strategy:** Accept with monitoring
**Actions:**
1. Document known limitations
2. Monitor analytics for browser usage
3. Create workaround documentation

**Cost:** Minimal
**Risk Reduction:** 0% (accept)

Contingency Planning

Contingency Template

markdown
## Contingency: [Risk ID] - [Name]

### Trigger Conditions
- Condition 1 that indicates risk is occurring
- Condition 2 that indicates risk is occurring

### Immediate Response (0-1 hour)
1. Acknowledge incident
2. Notify stakeholders
3. Assess severity

### Short-term Response (1-24 hours)
1. Implement workaround
2. Communicate status
3. Begin root cause analysis

### Recovery Actions
1. Fix underlying issue
2. Restore normal operations
3. Document lessons learned

### Communication Plan
| Audience | Channel | Frequency | Owner |
|----------|---------|-----------|-------|
| Team | Slack | Real-time | Lead |
| Stakeholders | Email | 4 hours | PM |
| Users | Status page | As needed | Support |

Risk Monitoring

Key Risk Indicators (KRIs)

Risk Type KRI Warning Critical
Performance P95 latency > 500ms > 1s
Availability Uptime < 99.9% < 99%
Scope Backlog growth +20% +50%
Budget Cost variance +15% +30%
Quality Defect rate > 5% > 10%
Security Vulnerability age > 7 days > 30 days

Monitoring Dashboard

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                      RISK DASHBOARD                          │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Active Risks: 8     │  Critical: 1  │  High: 2  │  Med: 5  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                              │
│  R1 [API Dep]     🔴 ████████████████████████ Critical      │
│  R2 [Scope]       🟠 ██████████████████░░░░░░ High          │
│  R3 [Skills]      🟠 ████████████████░░░░░░░░ High          │
│  R4 [Schedule]    🟡 ██████████████░░░░░░░░░░ Medium        │
│  R5 [Budget]      🟡 ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ Medium        │
│                                                              │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Trend: → Stable   │  Mitigations: 3 active  │  Due: 2     │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Risk Review Cadence

Meeting Frequency Focus Attendees
Daily standup Daily Blockers, new risks Team
Sprint planning Bi-weekly Sprint risks Team
Risk review Weekly All active risks Leads
Stakeholder update Monthly High/Critical risks Management
Retrospective Bi-weekly Lessons learned Team

Common Software Project Risks

Top 10 Risks

  1. Unclear Requirements - Scope uncertainty
  2. Third-Party Dependencies - API/service reliability
  3. Technical Debt - Accumulated shortcuts
  4. Performance Issues - Scalability problems
  5. Security Vulnerabilities - Data protection
  6. Resource Availability - Team capacity
  7. Integration Complexity - System connections
  8. Schedule Pressure - Unrealistic deadlines
  9. Technology Changes - Platform updates
  10. Knowledge Gaps - Missing expertise

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