Agent skill

risk-assessment-skill

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SKILL.md

Risk Assessment Skill

Overview

Comprehensive expertise in identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks associated with AI adoption for vendor replacement, covering security, compliance, business, and operational dimensions.

Risk Assessment Frameworks

Risk Identification Matrix

markdown
## AI Adoption Risk Categories

| Category | Sub-Categories | Priority |
|----------|----------------|----------|
| **Security** | Data exposure, prompt injection, API vulnerabilities | 🔴 High |
| **Compliance** | GDPR, SOC2, HIPAA, industry regulations | 🔴 High |
| **Business** | Vendor lock-in, cost overruns, quality issues | 🟡 Medium |
| **Operational** | Availability, reliability, support | 🟡 Medium |
| **Reputational** | AI errors, bias, customer perception | 🟢 Low |
| **Legal** | IP ownership, liability, contracts | 🟡 Medium |

Risk Scoring Methodology

Likelihood Scale (1-5):

  • 1 - Rare: <5% probability, unprecedented
  • 2 - Unlikely: 5-25% probability, has happened elsewhere
  • 3 - Possible: 25-50% probability, common in industry
  • 4 - Likely: 50-75% probability, expected to occur
  • 5 - Almost Certain: >75% probability, will definitely happen

Impact Scale (1-5):

  • 1 - Negligible: <$10K cost, no data exposure, minor inconvenience
  • 2 - Minor: $10-50K cost, limited data exposure, short disruption
  • 3 - Moderate: $50-250K cost, moderate exposure, multi-day disruption
  • 4 - Major: $250K-$1M cost, significant exposure, week+ disruption
  • 5 - Catastrophic: >$1M cost, severe breach, existential threat

Risk Score = Likelihood × Impact

Risk Level Interpretation:

  • 1-5 (Low): Accept and monitor
  • 6-12 (Medium): Mitigate or monitor closely
  • 13-20 (High): Must mitigate before proceeding
  • 21-25 (Critical): Immediate action required, may be show-stopper

Risk Assessment Template

markdown
## Risk Assessment: [AI Tool/Use Case]

### Risk #1: [Risk Name]

**Description:** [What could go wrong]

**Likelihood:** [1-5] - [Justification]
**Impact:** [1-5] - [Justification]
**Risk Score:** [L × I] - [Low/Medium/High/Critical]

**Triggers/Indicators:**
- [Early warning sign 1]
- [Early warning sign 2]

**Current Controls:**
- [Existing mitigation if any]

**Mitigation Strategy:**
1. [Action to reduce likelihood or impact]
2. [Action to reduce likelihood or impact]
3. [Monitoring/detection approach]

**Residual Risk:** [Score after mitigation]
**Owner:** [Person/team responsible]
**Status:** [Identified/Mitigated/Accepted/Monitoring]

**Review Date:** [Next assessment date]

Security Risk Assessment

Data Exposure Risks

Risk: Confidential Code Sent to AI Services

  • Likelihood: 4 (Likely) - developers will paste code naturally
  • Impact: 4 (Major) - trade secrets, competitive advantage lost
  • Risk Score: 16 (High)

Mitigation:

  1. Technical Controls:

    • Data loss prevention (DLP) rules
    • Code scanning for secrets before AI submission
    • Approved AI tools only (block consumer tools)
    • Local AI models for sensitive code

  2. Process Controls:

    • Security training on AI data risks
    • Code review for AI-generated outputs
    • Classification of code (public/internal/confidential)
    • Policy: No confidential code to cloud AI

  3. Monitoring:

    • API usage auditing
    • Anomaly detection (unusual volumes)
    • Regular access reviews
    • Incident response plan

Residual Risk: 8 (Medium) after mitigations

Risk: PII in Prompts

  • Likelihood: 3 (Possible) - depends on use case
  • Impact: 5 (Catastrophic) - regulatory fines, breach notification
  • Risk Score: 15 (High)

Mitigation:

  1. Prevention:

    • PII detection in prompts (automated scanning)
    • Data masking/anonymization before AI processing
    • Synthetic data for testing/training
    • Strict policy against PII in prompts

  2. Detection:

    • Prompt logging and auditing
    • PII pattern matching
    • Regular compliance reviews
    • User training and awareness

  3. Response:

    • Immediate prompt deletion if PII detected
    • Incident reporting procedures
    • Regulatory notification plan
    • Affected individual notification

Residual Risk: 6 (Medium) after mitigations

Adversarial Attack Risks

Prompt Injection Attack Matrix:

markdown
| Attack Type | Example | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|-------------|---------|------------|--------|------------|
| Direct injection | User adds "ignore previous instructions" | 3 | 3 | Input validation, prompt templates |
| Indirect injection | Malicious content in retrieved documents | 2 | 4 | Content sanitization, output filtering |
| Jailbreaking | Bypass safety guardrails | 2 | 3 | Use providers with strong guardrails |
| Data extraction | Trick AI into revealing training data | 1 | 4 | Use reputable providers, monitor outputs |

Mitigation Strategies:

  • Use prompt templates with fixed structure
  • Validate and sanitize all user inputs
  • Implement output filtering
  • Use role-based prompting
  • Monitor for attack patterns
  • Regular security testing

API and Infrastructure Risks

API Key Exposure:

  • Prevention: Use secrets management (Vault, AWS Secrets Manager)
  • Detection: Scan code repos for hardcoded keys (git-secrets)
  • Response: Immediate key rotation if exposed
  • Process: Key rotation schedule (90 days)

Rate Limiting and Quotas:

  • Risk: API limits exceeded during high usage
  • Mitigation: Monitor usage, set alerts at 80% quota
  • Backup: Multiple providers or fallback queuing
  • Cost control: Budget alerts, usage caps

Service Availability:

  • Risk: AI service outage impacts operations
  • Mitigation: Multi-provider strategy, graceful degradation
  • Monitoring: Uptime tracking, SLA enforcement
  • Fallback: Manual process if AI unavailable

Compliance Risk Assessment

GDPR Compliance Checklist

markdown
## GDPR Compliance for AI Tools

### Lawful Basis for Processing
- [ ] Documented lawful basis (consent, contract, legitimate interest)
- [ ] Data processing agreement (DPA) with AI vendor
- [ ] Purpose clearly defined and communicated
- [ ] Processing limited to stated purpose

### Data Subject Rights
- [ ] Right to access: Can retrieve data sent to AI?
- [ ] Right to erasure: Can delete data from AI provider?
- [ ] Right to portability: Can export data?
- [ ] Right to object: Can opt-out of AI processing?
- [ ] Automated decision-making: Humans in the loop?

### Data Protection Principles
- [ ] Data minimization: Only necessary data to AI
- [ ] Purpose limitation: Not using AI data for other purposes
- [ ] Storage limitation: Data retention policies defined
- [ ] Accuracy: Mechanisms to ensure data accuracy
- [ ] Integrity & confidentiality: Encryption, access controls

### Cross-Border Transfers
- [ ] AI vendor location documented (EU, US, other)
- [ ] Transfer mechanism in place (adequacy, SCCs, BCRs)
- [ ] Schrems II compliance for US vendors
- [ ] Data localization requirements met

### Accountability
- [ ] Privacy impact assessment (PIA) completed
- [ ] Records of processing activities maintained
- [ ] Data protection officer (DPO) consulted if required
- [ ] Training provided on GDPR and AI
- [ ] Breach notification procedures ready

GDPR Risk Score: [Calculate based on checklist completion]

  • 100% complete: Low risk
  • 80-99%: Medium risk
  • <80%: High risk - do not proceed

SOC2 Compliance Framework

Trust Service Criteria Mapping:

markdown
## SOC2 Controls for AI Adoption

### Security (All AI implementations)
**CC6.1:** Logical and physical access controls
- [ ] API keys stored in secrets management
- [ ] MFA required for AI tool access
- [ ] Role-based access control (RBAC) implemented
- [ ] Access reviews performed quarterly

**CC6.6:** Encryption
- [ ] Data encrypted in transit (TLS 1.2+)
- [ ] Data encrypted at rest (AI provider confirms)
- [ ] Encryption key management documented

**CC7.2:** System monitoring
- [ ] AI usage logging enabled
- [ ] Anomaly detection configured
- [ ] Security event monitoring
- [ ] Incident response plan includes AI systems

### Availability
**A1.2:** System availability
- [ ] AI provider SLA documented (target: 99.9%)
- [ ] Monitoring and alerting configured
- [ ] Backup/fallback procedures defined
- [ ] Disaster recovery plan includes AI dependencies

### Processing Integrity
**PI1.4:** Processing completeness and accuracy
- [ ] AI output validation procedures
- [ ] Quality assurance checks
- [ ] Error handling and logging
- [ ] Human review for critical outputs

### Confidentiality
**C1.1:** Confidentiality controls
- [ ] Data classification applied to AI inputs
- [ ] Confidential data protection measures
- [ ] AI vendor confidentiality agreement signed
- [ ] Access to AI outputs restricted appropriately

### Privacy
**P4.3:** Data retention and disposal
- [ ] AI data retention policy defined
- [ ] Data deletion procedures with AI vendor
- [ ] Regular data disposal verification
- [ ] Compliance with privacy laws

HIPAA Compliance (Healthcare)

High-Risk Activities (Require BAA):

  • Sending PHI to AI for analysis or processing
  • Using AI to generate patient communications
  • AI-assisted diagnosis or treatment recommendations
  • AI processing of patient records

HIPAA-Safe AI Usage:

  • Use only HIPAA-compliant AI vendors with signed BAA
  • De-identify PHI before AI processing (Safe Harbor or Expert Determination)
  • Encrypt all PHI in transit and at rest
  • Maintain audit logs of all PHI access
  • Implement access controls and authentication
  • Regular security risk assessments
  • Breach notification procedures

HIPAA Compliance Checklist:

markdown
- [ ] AI vendor is HIPAA-compliant (verify)
- [ ] Business Associate Agreement (BAA) signed
- [ ] Risk assessment completed and documented
- [ ] PHI de-identification process defined
- [ ] Encryption standards met (AES-256, TLS 1.2+)
- [ ] Audit logging configured and monitored
- [ ] Access controls implemented (RBAC, MFA)
- [ ] Breach notification plan includes AI systems
- [ ] Staff training on HIPAA and AI completed
- [ ] Regular compliance audits scheduled

Business Risk Assessment

Vendor Lock-in Risk Analysis

Lock-in Risk Factors:

markdown
| Factor | Low Risk (1-2) | Medium Risk (3) | High Risk (4-5) | Score |
|--------|---------------|-----------------|-----------------|-------|
| **Data Portability** | Easy export | Some friction | Vendor-specific format | |
| **API Proprietary** | Standard APIs | Custom but documented | Fully proprietary | |
| **Training Data** | You own it | Shared ownership | Vendor owns it | |
| **Integration Depth** | Shallow, easily replaced | Moderate integration | Deep, hard to replace | |
| **Cost to Switch** | <$10K | $10-50K | >$50K | |
| **Feature Dependency** | Use basic features | Some unique features | Heavily dependent on unique | |
| **Contract Terms** | Month-to-month | Annual | Multi-year | |

**Total Lock-in Score:** [Sum / 35]
- 7-14: Low lock-in risk
- 15-24: Medium lock-in risk
- 25-35: High lock-in risk

Mitigation Strategies:

  • Multi-provider strategy: Use multiple AI vendors for redundancy
  • Abstraction layer: Build wrapper APIs to make switching easier
  • Data ownership: Ensure contract grants you full data ownership
  • Exit planning: Document migration path before full adoption
  • Avoid long contracts: Prefer month-to-month or annual

Quality and Reliability Risks

AI Hallucination Risk:

  • Use Cases Most at Risk: Technical documentation, code generation, data analysis
  • Mitigation:
    • Human review of all AI outputs
    • Validation against source truth
    • Confidence scoring where available
    • Testing and verification procedures
    • Clear labeling of AI-generated content

Model Degradation:

  • Risk: AI provider updates model, quality drops
  • Mitigation:
    • Pin to specific model versions where possible
    • Test new versions before switching
    • Monitor quality metrics continuously
    • Fallback to previous version if needed
    • Contract terms about version control

Cost Overrun Risks

Cost Risk Assessment:

markdown
## AI Cost Overrun Analysis

### Usage Uncertainty
**Risk:** Actual usage exceeds estimates
- Projected usage: [X] tokens/month
- Worst case usage: [Y] tokens/month (2-3x)
- Budget buffer: [Z]% recommended: 50-100%

### Pricing Changes
**Risk:** Vendor changes pricing model
- Current pricing: $[X] per [unit]
- Historical changes: [Track vendor pricing history]
- Contract protection: Price lock for [duration]?
- Multi-provider backup: Alternative pricing available

### Hidden Costs
- Integration and setup: $[X] (one-time)
- Training and adoption: $[Y] (one-time)
- Monitoring and management: $[Z]/month (ongoing)
- Quality assurance: $[W]/month (ongoing)
- Unexpected overage charges: $[V] (buffer)

### Cost Control Measures
- [ ] Usage monitoring and alerts
- [ ] Budget caps and quotas
- [ ] Approval for high-cost operations
- [ ] Regular cost reviews (monthly)
- [ ] Optimization opportunities identified

Operational Risk Assessment

Availability and Reliability

Service Availability Risk Matrix:

markdown
| Scenario | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | RPO/RTO |
|----------|------------|--------|------------|---------|
| Planned maintenance | High (monthly) | Low | Schedule off-hours, notification | 2h / 4h |
| Unplanned outage | Medium (quarterly) | Medium | Fallback provider, queue | 1h / 8h |
| Regional outage | Low (annual) | High | Multi-region deployment | 15m / 4h |
| Vendor bankruptcy | Very Low | Critical | Data export, alternative ready | N/A / 2 weeks |

Disaster Recovery Plan:

  1. Detection: Automated monitoring alerts within 5 minutes
  2. Assessment: Determine scope and estimated duration (15 minutes)
  3. Communication: Notify stakeholders of impact (30 minutes)
  4. Mitigation: Activate fallback (manual process or alternate provider)
  5. Recovery: Resume normal operations when service restored
  6. Post-mortem: Document incident and improve resilience

Support and Escalation Risks

Support Tier Assessment:

markdown
| Vendor Support Level | Response Time | Suitable For | Risk Level |
|---------------------|---------------|--------------|------------|
| Community only | Days-weeks | Non-critical, learning | High |
| Email support | 24-48 hours | Low-priority use cases | Medium |
| Business support | 4-8 hours | Standard production use | Medium |
| Enterprise support | 1-4 hours | Critical production use | Low |
| Dedicated TAM | <1 hour | Mission-critical | Low |

Recommendation: Match support tier to use case criticality

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Defense in Depth Approach

Layer 1: Prevention

  • Security controls (encryption, access control)
  • Policy and training
  • Tool selection and vetting
  • Secure integration patterns

Layer 2: Detection

  • Monitoring and logging
  • Anomaly detection
  • Regular audits
  • Compliance scanning

Layer 3: Response

  • Incident response procedures
  • Escalation paths
  • Containment actions
  • Communication plans

Layer 4: Recovery

  • Backup and fallback procedures
  • Data restoration
  • Service resumption
  • Post-incident review

Continuous Risk Monitoring

Risk Dashboard Template:

markdown
## AI Risk Dashboard - [Month/Year]

### Overall Risk Status: 🟡 Medium

| Risk Category | Open Risks | Mitigated | Accepted | Trend |
|---------------|-----------|-----------|----------|-------|
| Security | 3 | 12 | 2 | ↓ Improving |
| Compliance | 1 | 8 | 0 | → Stable |
| Business | 4 | 6 | 3 | ↑ Increasing |
| Operational | 2 | 10 | 1 | → Stable |

### Top 5 Current Risks
1. [Risk name] - Score: [X] - Owner: [Y] - Due: [Date]
2. [Risk name] - Score: [X] - Owner: [Y] - Due: [Date]
3. [Risk name] - Score: [X] - Owner: [Y] - Due: [Date]
4. [Risk name] - Score: [X] - Owner: [Y] - Due: [Date]
5. [Risk name] - Score: [X] - Owner: [Y] - Due: [Date]

### Recent Changes
- New risk identified: [Description]
- Risk mitigated: [Description]
- Risk escalated: [Description]

### Action Items
- [ ] [Action for risk X]
- [ ] [Action for risk Y]
- [ ] [Action for risk Z]

Review Cadence:

  • Weekly: Operational risks and incidents
  • Monthly: All risk categories, dashboard update
  • Quarterly: Risk assessment refresh, controls testing
  • Annually: Comprehensive risk review, framework update

Risk Assessment Best Practices

Do's

✅ Assess risks before procurement decisions ✅ Involve security, legal, compliance early ✅ Document all risks and mitigation plans ✅ Monitor continuously, not just at start ✅ Update assessments as AI usage evolves ✅ Be realistic about likelihood and impact ✅ Have layered defenses (prevention + detection + response) ✅ Plan for worst-case scenarios

Don'ts

❌ Skip risk assessment to move faster ❌ Downplay risks to get approval ❌ Ignore compliance requirements ❌ Assume vendor is secure without verification ❌ Use consumer AI tools for enterprise data ❌ Forget about insider threats ❌ Neglect incident response planning ❌ Set and forget - risks change over time

This skill ensures AI adoption proceeds with eyes wide open to risks, with appropriate mitigation strategies in place.

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