Production Forecaster

Forecast oil and gas production using industry-standard decline curve analysis. Supports Arps decline models, type curve generation, and EUR calculations for reserve estimation.

When to Use

• Forecasting future production for oil and gas wells
• Estimating EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery)
• Generating type curves for field development planning
• Fitting decline parameters to historical production data
• Comparing well performance across different fields
• Supporting reserve booking and economic evaluation

Core Pattern

Historical Production → Decline Curve Fit → Parameter Estimation → Forecast → EUR

Decline Curve Models

Arps Equations

Parameters: qi = initial rate, Di = initial decline rate, b = exponent, t = time.

Unconventional Models

Duong (transient linear flow): q(t) = q1 * t^(-m) * exp(-a/(1-m) * (t^(1-m) - 1))

Stretched Exponential: q(t) = qi * exp(-(t/τ)^n)

See references/examples.md for full class implementations and fitting code.

Key Classes

Quick Start — Single Well

from production_forecaster import DeclineCurveAnalyzer, ProductionForecaster
import pandas as pd

historical = pd.read_csv('data/production/well_a1.csv')  # columns: date, rate

analyzer = DeclineCurveAnalyzer(historical)
params, model_type = analyzer.fit_best_model()           # picks best RMSE fit

forecaster = ProductionForecaster(params, cumulative_to_date=historical['cumulative'].iloc[-1])
forecast = forecaster.forecast(years=30, economic_limit=25)

print(f"Model: {model_type} | EUR: {forecast.eur_oil/1e6:.2f} MMbbl")

Quick Start — Type Curves

from production_forecaster import TypeCurveGenerator, NormalizationMethod, TypeCurveBinType
import pandas as pd, glob

wells = [pd.read_csv(f) for f in glob.glob('data/production/field_x/*.csv')]
generator = TypeCurveGenerator(wells, metadata=well_metadata)
generator.normalize_wells(method=NormalizationMethod.IP_30)
generator.create_bins(TypeCurveBinType.WATER_DEPTH)

bin_results = generator.generate_bin_type_curves(TypeCurveBinType.WATER_DEPTH)
eur_dist = generator.calculate_eur_distribution(economic_limit=25)

Type Curve Normalization Methods

Bins: formation, completion, water_depth, lateral_length, proppant, vintage. Percentiles: P10 = optimistic (90th), P50 = median, P90 = conservative (10th).

CLI Summary

# Fit and forecast
uv run --no-project python -m production_forecaster fit --data well.csv --model hyperbolic
uv run --no-project python -m production_forecaster forecast --config config/forecast.yaml

# Type curves
uv run --no-project python -m production_forecaster type-curve \
    --wells data/production/*.csv --normalize 30_day_ip --bin-by water_depth

# EUR
uv run --no-project python -m production_forecaster eur --qi 5000 --di 0.35 --b 0.8 --limit 25

Full CLI options, YAML config templates, and complete class implementations: → references/examples.md

Best Practices

Data quality: Clean outliers; use ≥6–12 months of decline data; account for workovers and shut-ins.

Model selection: Exponential for mature conventional; hyperbolic for most unconventional; high b (>1) for extended linear flow. Use modified hyperbolic for long-term forecasts to cap optimism with a terminal decline rate (5–8%/year).

Uncertainty: Always generate P10/P50/P90. Update forecasts quarterly. Document all assumptions for reserve booking.

Data Models (summary)

DeclineParameters(qi, di, b, decline_type, min_rate, d_min, a, m, tau, n)
ProductionRecord(date, oil_rate, gas_rate, water_rate, days_on)
ForecastResult(dates, oil_rates, gas_rates, cumulative_oil, eur_oil, remaining_oil, ...)
TypeCurveResult(months, p10/p50/p90_rates, mean_rates, well_counts, eur_p10/p50/p90, ...)

Full dataclass definitions in references/examples.md §Data Models.

Related Skills

• ../npv-analyzer/SKILL.md — Economic evaluation with Monte Carlo simulation
• ../bsee-data-extractor/SKILL.md — Extract BSEE production, WAR, and APD data
• ../field-analyzer/SKILL.md — Field-level production analysis
• ../well-production-dashboard/SKILL.md — Production visualization

v2.0.0 (2025-12-30): Initial release. v2.1.0 (2026-03-08): Trimmed to thin guide; bulk content → references/examples.md.