Monitor Polymarket

${var} — Event slug to monitor (e.g. "us-x-iran-ceasefire-by"). If empty, reads the watchlist from skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist.md.

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context. Read the last 2 days of memory/logs/ to compare against previous readings and flag changes.

Watchlist

The default watchlist lives at skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist.md. Each line is an event slug. Add or remove slugs to change what gets monitored.

If ${var} is set, monitor only that single event (useful for ad-hoc checks).

Steps

1. Load watchlist

if [ -n "${var}" ]; then
  SLUGS="${var}"
else
  # Read watchlist file, one slug per line, skip comments and blanks
  SLUGS=$(grep -v '^#' skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist.md | grep -v '^$')
fi

2. For each event, fetch markets and price history

For each event slug in the watchlist:

a) Get the event and its markets:

curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=$SLUG&limit=1"

The response contains the event id, title, and a markets array. Each market has:

• id, question, slug, closed
• outcomePrices — JSON array, index 0 = YES price (0.0–1.0)
• volume24hr, volumeNum, liquidityNum
• clobTokenIds — JSON array, index 0 = YES token, index 1 = NO token

Skip closed markets — they've already resolved.

b) Get 24h price history for each open market:

# YES token is index 0 of clobTokenIds
TOKEN_ID=$(echo "$CLOB_TOKEN_IDS" | python3 -c "import json,sys; print(json.loads(sys.stdin.read())[0])")
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=$TOKEN_ID&interval=1d&fidelity=60"

Response: { "history": [{ "t": unix_timestamp, "p": "price_string" }, ...] }

c) Calculate 24h stats for each market:

• Open / Close — first and last price in the history
• Change — close minus open, in percentage points (e.g. +4.0pp)
• High / Low — intraday range
• Volume — volume24hr from the market data
• Direction — classify as: surging (>+5pp), rising (+2 to +5pp), stable (-2 to +2pp), falling (-5 to -2pp), crashing (<-5pp)

3. Fetch comments

For each event, get top comments and latest comments:

EVENT_ID=... # from step 2a

# Top comments by reactions
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=reactionCount&ascending=false"

# Latest comments (last 24h chatter)
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=createdAt&ascending=false"

Important: parent_entity_type must be Event (capital E).

Each comment has: body, profile.username (often null → use "anon"), reactionCount, createdAt.

From the combined results, pick the 3 most interesting comments per event:

• New comments from the last 24h get priority (they react to recent moves)
• High-reaction comments that are still relevant
• Contrarian takes, insider-sounding analysis, whale callouts, humor

4. Build the report

For each event, produce a summary block:

**[Event Title]** (event_id: N)

| Market | YES | 24h Chg | High/Low | 24h Vol |
|--------|-----|---------|----------|---------|
| [question] | XX.X% | +X.Xpp ▲ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm |
| [question] | XX.X% | -X.Xpp ▼ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm |
...

Biggest mover: "[question]" — [direction] from X% to Y%

Comments:
- [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]" (X upvotes)
- [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]"
- [user/anon]: "[comment excerpt]"

Flag any market that moved more than 5 percentage points in 24h — these are the ones worth paying attention to.

5. Notify

Send via ./notify (under 4000 chars):

polymarket monitor — ${today}

[Event Title]
[market] YES X% (chg pp) $Xm vol
[market] YES X% (chg pp) $Xm vol
biggest mover: [market] — [direction]
top comment: "[excerpt]"

[next event...]

alerts: [list any markets that moved >5pp]

If no markets moved significantly, say so — "all quiet" is useful signal too.

6. Log

Append to memory/logs/${today}.md:

## Monitor Polymarket
- **Events monitored:** N
- **Markets tracked:** N (M open, K closed)
- **Biggest mover:** "[question]" — X% → Y% (+/-Zpp)
- **Alert markets (>5pp move):** [list or "none"]
- **Top comment:** "[excerpt]"
- **Notification sent:** yes

If a market has moved dramatically or a new trend is forming, also note it in memory/MEMORY.md for future reference.