Ideas Forecasting

Use this skill to invert planning: user provides the business idea and products, then the agent proposes practical 90-day targets from external evidence.

Invocation

/lp-do-idea-forecast
/lp-do-idea-forecast --biz=HEAD
/lp-do-idea-forecast --biz=PET --country=IT --horizon-days=90
/lp-do-idea-forecast --biz=PET --launch-surface=pre-website
/lp-do-idea-forecast --biz=PET --market-research-max-age-days=30

Defaults:

• horizon-days=90
• country=IT if not provided
• launch-surface=website-live unless user states no site is ready
• market-research-max-age-days=30
• focus: speed to first sales for startup businesses

Inputs

Minimum required:

• Business code: e.g. HEAD, PET
• Business idea: one-paragraph concept
• Products: list of products with short specs

Strongly recommended:

• Price intent (if known): target price or range
• Channels: DTC site, marketplaces, social commerce, retail, etc.
• Budget guardrails: launch budget cap and ad budget guardrail
• Stock timeline: date first sellable stock is available
• Launch surface: website-live or pre-website
• Constraints: legal, ops, brand, geography, supply chain

Market Intelligence Pack (Prerequisite)

Canonical files:

• docs/business-os/market-research/<BIZ>/latest.user.md
• docs/business-os/market-research/<BIZ>/<YYYY-MM-DD>-market-intelligence.user.md

Readiness rule:

• If latest.user.md is missing, Status is not Active, or Last-reviewed is older than market-research-max-age-days, treat market research as stale.

When stale:

1. Stop forecasting.
2. Present a detailed Deep Research prompt to the user using:
   • docs/business-os/market-research/_templates/deep-research-market-intelligence-prompt.md
3. Fill placeholders from current intake packet and return a copy-paste prompt block.
4. Resume forecast only after research output is supplied.

Launch Surface Modes

website-live

Use standard ecommerce funnel forecasting.

Core forecast metrics:

• sessions
• conversion rate
• AOV
• orders
• gross revenue
• gross margin
• CAC

pre-website

Use this when no production website is ready. Forecast around early sales validation channels and assisted commerce.

Core forecast metrics:

• qualified leads
• assisted order attempts
• assisted order conversion rate
• pre-order/deposit count (if used)
• average order value proxy
• gross revenue
• gross margin
• blended acquisition cost proxy

Channel focus for research and recommendations:

• lightweight landing + form capture
• social DM/WhatsApp assisted sales
• marketplace trial listing (if appropriate)
• community/partner channels

Operating Rules

1. Separate observed vs inferred in every numeric section.
2. Use scenario ranges (P10, P50, P90), never single-point certainty.
3. Prefer region-relevant recent sources; attach URL + access date.
4. Do not invent competitor metrics when not available.
5. Optimize recommendations for startup speed-to-revenue, not infrastructure perfection.
6. Treat outputs as forecast proposals requiring operator approval.

Workflow

Stage 1: Intake, Freshness Check, and Clarify

1. Capture required inputs.
2. Check market-research freshness for the target business.
3. If missing/stale, present filled Deep Research prompt from template and pause.
4. Ask up to 3 high-impact clarification questions if blockers remain.
5. Freeze an intake packet for this run.

Stage 2: Build Forecast Research Prompt

1. Load references/deep-research-prompt-template.md.
2. Fill placeholders from intake packet.
3. Set launch-surface explicitly and enforce mode-specific metric guidance.
4. Keep expected outputs contract intact.

Stage 3: Run Forecast Research

1. Run Deep Research using the filled forecast prompt (preferred).
2. If Deep Research is unavailable, run equivalent manual web research with citation discipline.
3. Collect evidence in a source table before forecasting.

Stage 4: Forecast and Goal Proposal

Produce:

1. 90-day scenario forecast (P10/P50/P90) using mode-appropriate metrics:
   • if website-live: sessions, conversion rate, AOV, orders, gross revenue, gross margin, CAC, payback proxy
   • if pre-website: qualified leads, assisted order attempts, assisted conversion, pre-orders/deposits (if used), AOV proxy, gross revenue, gross margin, acquisition cost proxy
2. competitor benchmark table (pricing, offer structure, channel posture)
3. proposed targets for first 90 days and first 4 weeks
4. assumption register with confidence tags (high/medium/low)
5. risk register with mitigation actions
6. week-1/week-2 validation checklist to recalibrate forecast quickly

Stage 5: Persist Outputs

Write:

• docs/business-os/strategy/<BIZ>/<slug>-90-day-launch-forecast-vN.user.md

If this run is intended to seed SFS-00, also write:

• docs/business-os/startup-baselines/<BIZ>/forecast-seed.user.md

If market research was refreshed in this run, also write:

• docs/business-os/market-research/<BIZ>/<YYYY-MM-DD>-market-intelligence.user.md
• Update: docs/business-os/market-research/<BIZ>/latest.user.md

Render HTML companions (required for all .user.md files written/updated in this stage):

• Run:
  • pnpm docs:render-user-html -- <all .user.md output paths from this run>
• At minimum this includes:
  • forecast file
  • startup baseline seed file (if written)
  • market-intelligence file (if written)
  • market-intelligence latest pointer (if updated)

Output Contract

<slug>-90-day-launch-forecast-vN.user.md must include:

1. Executive Summary (<=12 bullets)
2. Input Packet (what user provided)
3. Launch Surface Mode (website-live or pre-website) and chosen metric set
4. Competitor Benchmark Table (with source links)
5. 90-Day Forecast Table (P10/P50/P90)
6. Proposed Outcome Statement
7. Proposed Targets
8. Assumptions Register
9. Risk Register
10. First-14-Day Validation Plan
11. Source List (URL + access date)
12. Confidence and Caveats

Definition of Expected Outcomes

An expected outcome in this skill means a measurable 90-day business result with:

• Outcome statement: plain-language result
• Baseline: starting point now
• Target: expected value or range by deadline
• Deadline: exact date
• Leading indicators: weekly signals proving progress
• Decision link: what decision this outcome unlocks

Use forecast evidence to propose these fields; do not leave them blank.

Integration with Existing Flow

1. Forecasting runs before idea prioritization when startup context is sparse.
2. Approved forecast outcomes seed SFS-00 business intent baseline.
3. lp-do-idea-generate should use approved forecast outcomes as steering constraints.
4. lp-do-fact-find / lp-do-analysis / lp-do-plan / lp-do-build remain the delivery path for selected go items.

Red Flags (invalid output)

1. Missing competitor citations for numeric claims.
2. Single-point target claims without scenario ranges.
3. No distinction between observed data and inferred estimates.
4. No first-14-day validation plan.
5. Proposed goals that ignore user budget/stock constraints.
6. Uses website-only metrics in pre-website mode without conversion mapping.
7. Continues forecasting despite stale or missing market intelligence pack.
8. .user.md outputs were written but corresponding .user.html companions were not rendered.