Earnings Orchestrator

Input

$ARGUMENTS = TICKER

• TICKER: Company ticker (required)

Task - MUST COMPLETE ALL STEPS

Step 0: Record Start Time

echo "=== START: $(date '+%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S') ==="

Step 1: Get Earnings Data

source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_earnings.py {TICKER}

Output columns: accession|date|fiscal_year|fiscal_quarter|market_session|daily_stock|daily_adj|sector_adj|industry_adj|trailing_vol|vol_days|vol_status|fye_month

Parse: Extract E1 (first data row after header), E2 (second data row after header). The script returns data sorted oldest-to-newest, so E1 is the OLDEST quarter, E2 is the second oldest. Only process these two quarters. Note trailing_vol and fye_month for each. The fye_month (1-12) indicates the company's fiscal year end month (e.g., 9=September for Apple, 12=December for most companies).

If ERROR returned: Stop and report error to user.

Step 1b: Check Processing Cache

Check both earnings-analysis/news_processed.csv and earnings-analysis/guidance_processed.csv for {TICKER}.

News cache: (format: ticker|quarter|fiscal_year|processed_date)

• Find row where ticker={TICKER} AND quarter={E1.fiscal_quarter} AND fiscal_year=FY{E1.fiscal_year}
• If row exists → Q1_NEWS_CACHED=true
• Repeat check for Q2 → Q2_NEWS_CACHED

Guidance cache: (format: ticker|quarter|fiscal_year|processed_date)

• Find row where ticker={TICKER} AND quarter={E1.fiscal_quarter} AND fiscal_year=FY{E1.fiscal_year}
• If row exists → Q1_GUIDANCE_CACHED=true
• Repeat check for Q2 → Q2_GUIDANCE_CACHED

Skip logic for each quarter:

Same logic applies to Q2 with Steps 4, 4b.

Step 2: Discovery for Q1 (News + Guidance in parallel)

Calculate:

• START = E1 date minus 3 months (or earliest available data)
• END = E1 date (just the date part, e.g., 2024-02-01)

Run discovery scripts in parallel (only for non-cached tracks):

# News discovery (SKIP if Q1 news cached)
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_significant_moves.py {TICKER} {START} {END} {E1.trailing_vol}

# Guidance discovery - all 5 in parallel (SKIP ALL if Q1 guidance cached)
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_8k_filings_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_10k_filings_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_10q_filings_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_transcript_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_guidance_news_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}

Cache-aware execution: (based on Step 1b flags)

• If Q1_NEWS_CACHED=true → skip get_significant_moves.py
• If Q1_GUIDANCE_CACHED=true → skip all 5 guidance discovery scripts
• If both cached → skip Steps 2, 3, 3b entirely for Q1

Parse news results:

• get_significant_moves.py output columns: date|daily_stock|daily_macro|daily_adj
• Parse: List of dates with significant moves

Parse guidance results (content-level sources): All 7 scripts return the SAME format: report_id|date|source_type|source_key

• get_8k_filings_range.py → 8-K content (source_type: exhibit, section, filing_text)
• get_10k_filings_range.py → 10-K content (source_type: exhibit, section, filing_text, financial_stmt, xbrl)
• get_10q_filings_range.py → 10-Q content (source_type: exhibit, section, filing_text, financial_stmt, xbrl)
• get_transcript_range.py → Transcripts (source_type: transcript, source_key: full)
• get_guidance_news_range.py → News (source_type: news, source_key: full)

Combine all guidance sources into a single list. Each line is one content source to process. Parse uniformly - no special handling needed.

If OK|NO_MOVES returned: No significant moves for Q1 news, skip news tasks but still process guidance if sources found.

Step 3: Concurrent Analysis for Q1 (News + Guidance)

Phase 1: Create tasks upfront (only for non-cached tracks)

NEWS TASKS (with blockedBy dependencies) - SKIP if Q1_NEWS_CACHED=true: For EACH significant date from Step 2, create all 4 tasks with dependency chain:

1. Create BZ task via TaskCreate:

   • subject: "BZ-{QUARTER} {TICKER} {DATE}" (e.g., "BZ-Q4_FY2022 NOG 2023-01-03")
   • description: "pending"
   • activeForm: "Analyzing {TICKER} {DATE}"
   • Note the task ID as BZ_ID

2. Create WEB task via TaskCreate:

   • subject: "WEB-{QUARTER} {TICKER} {DATE}"
   • description: "{TICKER} {DATE} {DAILY_STOCK} {DAILY_ADJ}"
   • activeForm: "Web research {TICKER} {DATE}"
   • Then call TaskUpdate with addBlockedBy: ["{BZ_ID}"]
   • Note the task ID as WEB_ID

3. Create PPX task via TaskCreate:

   • subject: "PPX-{QUARTER} {TICKER} {DATE}"
   • description: "{TICKER} {DATE} {DAILY_STOCK} {DAILY_ADJ}"
   • activeForm: "Perplexity research {TICKER} {DATE}"
   • Then call TaskUpdate with addBlockedBy: ["{WEB_ID}"]
   • Note the task ID as PPX_ID

4. Create JUDGE task via TaskCreate:

   • subject: "JUDGE-{QUARTER} {TICKER} {DATE}"
   • description: "pending"
   • activeForm: "Validating {TICKER} {DATE}"
   • Then call TaskUpdate with addBlockedBy: ["{PPX_ID}"]
   • Note the task ID as JUDGE_ID

GUIDANCE TASKS (NO dependencies - all run in parallel) - SKIP if Q1_GUIDANCE_CACHED=true:

For EACH content source line from guidance discovery (format: report_id|date|source_type|source_key), create a task:

• subject: "GX-{QUARTER} {TICKER} {REPORT_ID} {SOURCE_TYPE}"
  • Pattern: GX-{quarter} {ticker} {id} {type} where id format varies by source type
• description: "{REPORT_ID}|{SOURCE_TYPE}|{SOURCE_KEY}" (store for agent prompt)
• activeForm: "Extracting guidance from {SOURCE_TYPE}"

All 7 source types use the same format - no special handling needed for transcripts or news.

Phase 2: Spawn agents (only for non-cached tracks, all in parallel)

NEWS: Spawn BZ agents for each significant date - SKIP if Q1_NEWS_CACHED=true:

subagent_type: "news-driver-bz"
description: "BZ news {TICKER} {DATE}"
prompt: "{TICKER} {DATE} {DAILY_STOCK} {DAILY_ADJ} TASK_ID={BZ_ID} WEB_TASK_ID={WEB_ID} PPX_TASK_ID={PPX_ID} JUDGE_TASK_ID={JUDGE_ID} QUARTER={E1.fiscal_quarter}_FY{E1.fiscal_year}"

GUIDANCE: Spawn guidance-extract agents - SKIP if Q1_GUIDANCE_CACHED=true (one per content source, all in parallel):

For EACH guidance task, read the description to get {REPORT_ID}|{SOURCE_TYPE}|{SOURCE_KEY}, then spawn:

subagent_type: "guidance-extract"
description: "Guidance {TICKER} {SOURCE_TYPE}"
prompt: "{TICKER} {REPORT_ID} {SOURCE_TYPE} {SOURCE_KEY} {QUARTER} FYE={fye_month} TASK_ID={TASK_ID}"

Key variations in prompt format:

• Filing sources: {TICKER} {accession} {source_type} {source_key} {QUARTER} FYE={fye_month} TASK_ID={id}
• Transcript: {TICKER} {transcript_id} transcript full {QUARTER} FYE={fye_month} TASK_ID={id}
• News: {TICKER} {news_id} news full {QUARTER} FYE={fye_month} TASK_ID={id}

The fye_month comes from E1/E2 data (get_earnings.py output). Pass the same value for all guidance tasks of that company.

IMPORTANT:

• Create tasks only for non-cached tracks, THEN spawn agents for those tracks in parallel
• If only news cached → create + spawn guidance agents only
• If only guidance cached → create + spawn news agents only
• BZ agents mark WEB+PPX as SKIPPED if they find answer (external_research=false)
• Guidance agents have NO dependencies - they complete independently
• DO NOT WAIT for any agents - proceed immediately to Phase 3

Phase 3: Concurrent escalation loop - SKIP if Q1_NEWS_CACHED=true

If Q1_NEWS_CACHED=false, immediately after spawning BZ agents, enter this loop:

WHILE any Q1 tasks (BZ-*, WEB-*, PPX-*, JUDGE-*) are pending or in_progress:
  1. Check TaskList for WEB-{QUARTER} {TICKER} tasks that are:
     - status = "pending" AND blockedBy is empty (auto-unblocked when BZ completed)
     - NOT already spawned
     → For each such WEB task:
       - Get task via TaskGet to read description: "{TICKER} {DATE} {DAILY_STOCK} {DAILY_ADJ}"
       - Extract QUARTER from task subject
       - Find corresponding PPX and JUDGE task IDs from TaskList
       - Spawn:
         subagent_type: "news-driver-web"
         prompt: "{TICKER} {DATE} {DAILY_STOCK} {DAILY_ADJ} TASK_ID={WEB_ID} PPX_TASK_ID={PPX_ID} JUDGE_TASK_ID={JUDGE_ID} QUARTER={QUARTER}"
     → WEB agents mark PPX as SKIPPED if confidence >= 50

  2. Check TaskList for PPX-{QUARTER} {TICKER} tasks that are:
     - status = "pending" AND blockedBy is empty (auto-unblocked when WEB completed)
     - NOT already spawned
     → For each such PPX task:
       - Get task via TaskGet to read description
       - Extract QUARTER from task subject
       - Find corresponding JUDGE task ID from TaskList
       - Spawn:
         subagent_type: "news-driver-ppx"
         prompt: "{TICKER} {DATE} {DAILY_STOCK} {DAILY_ADJ} TASK_ID={PPX_ID} JUDGE_TASK_ID={JUDGE_ID} QUARTER={QUARTER}"
     → PPX agents always update JUDGE with result (final tier)

  3. Check TaskList for JUDGE-{QUARTER} {TICKER} tasks that are:
     - status = "pending" AND blockedBy is empty (auto-unblocked when PPX completed or skipped)
     - NOT already spawned
     - description starts with "READY:" (has result to validate)
     → For each such JUDGE task:
       - Spawn:
         subagent_type: "news-driver-judge"
         prompt: "TASK_ID={JUDGE_ID}"
     → JUDGE agents validate and update task with final confidence

  4. Brief pause (2-3 seconds), then repeat
END WHILE

Track which task IDs you've already spawned agents for to avoid duplicates.

Note on SKIPPED tasks: When BZ or WEB finds a confident answer, they mark downstream tasks as "completed" with description="SKIPPED: {tier} found answer". This auto-unblocks the next task in chain (JUDGE for BZ skip, JUDGE for WEB skip).

Phase 4: Collect all results

NEWS RESULTS: When all Q1 news tasks (BZ-, WEB-, PPX-, JUDGE-) are completed, collect results from JUDGE-* tasks via TaskGet. Read the description field — it contains the validated 12-field pipe-delimited result line (with attr_confidence, pred_confidence, and judge_notes).

Note: Each date has exactly one JUDGE task with the final validated result. BZ/WEB/PPX tasks contain intermediate results.

GUIDANCE RESULTS: When all Q1 guidance tasks (GX-*) are completed, collect results via TaskGet. Read the description field — it contains pipe-delimited guidance entries (18 fields per line):

period_type|fiscal_year|fiscal_quarter|segment|metric|low|mid|high|unit|basis|derivation|qualitative|source_type|source_id|source_key|given_date|section|quote

Field definitions:

• period_type: quarter, annual, half, or long-range
• fiscal_year: e.g., 2025
• fiscal_quarter: 1, 2, 3, 4, or . for annual
• segment: Total (default), or specific segment like Services, iPhone, AWS
• metric: Normalized name like Revenue, EPS, Gross Margin
• low, mid, high: Numbers or . for qualitative guidance
• unit: %, USD, B USD, % YoY, etc.
• basis: GAAP, non-GAAP, as-reported, etc.
• derivation: explicit, calculated (mid derived), point, or implied (qualitative only)
• qualitative: Non-numeric guidance text (e.g., "double digits") or .
• source_type, source_id, source_key: Source identification
• given_date: When guidance was issued (YYYY-MM-DD)
• section: Location in source (e.g., "CFO prepared remarks", "Outlook section")
• quote: Exact text with pipes replaced by ¦

Or NO_GUIDANCE|{source_type}|{source_key} if no guidance found in that source.

Note: Guidance tasks have no dependencies and complete independently of news tasks.

Step 3b: Save Q1 Results

NEWS RESULTS:

1. Create directory if needed: earnings-analysis/Companies/{TICKER}/
2. Append Q1 results to earnings-analysis/Companies/{TICKER}/news.csv:
   • Add quarter column with value {E1.fiscal_quarter}_FY{E1.fiscal_year} (e.g., Q1_FY2024)
   • Format: quarter|date|news_id|driver|attr_confidence|pred_confidence|daily_stock|daily_adj|market_session|source|external_research|source_pub_date|judge_notes
   • Create file with header if it doesn't exist
3. Update earnings-analysis/news_processed.csv:
   • Format: ticker|quarter|fiscal_year|processed_date
   • Append row: {TICKER}|{E1.fiscal_quarter}|FY{E1.fiscal_year}|{today YYYY-MM-DD}
   • Create file with header if it doesn't exist

GUIDANCE RESULTS: 4. Append Q1 guidance to earnings-analysis/Companies/{TICKER}/guidance.csv:

• Add quarter column with value {E1.fiscal_quarter}_FY{E1.fiscal_year}
• Format (19 fields): quarter|period_type|fiscal_year|fiscal_quarter|segment|metric|low|mid|high|unit|basis|derivation|qualitative|source_type|source_id|source_key|given_date|section|quote
• Skip lines that start with NO_GUIDANCE
• Create file with header if it doesn't exist

5. Update earnings-analysis/guidance_processed.csv:
   • Format: ticker|quarter|fiscal_year|processed_date
   • Append row: {TICKER}|{E1.fiscal_quarter}|FY{E1.fiscal_year}|{today YYYY-MM-DD}
   • Create file with header if it doesn't exist

Step 4: Concurrent Analysis for Q2 (News + Guidance)

Calculate:

• START = E1 date + 1 day (exclude E1 earnings reaction)
• END = E2 date (exclusive, excludes E2 earnings reaction)

Run discovery scripts in parallel (only for non-cached tracks):

# News discovery (SKIP if Q2 news cached)
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_significant_moves.py {TICKER} {START} {END} {E2.trailing_vol}

# Guidance discovery - all 5 in parallel (SKIP ALL if Q2 guidance cached)
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_8k_filings_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_10k_filings_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_10q_filings_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_transcript_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}
source /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/venv/bin/activate && python /home/faisal/EventMarketDB/scripts/earnings/get_guidance_news_range.py {TICKER} {START} {END}

Cache-aware execution: (based on Step 1b flags)

• If Q2_NEWS_CACHED=true → skip get_significant_moves.py
• If Q2_GUIDANCE_CACHED=true → skip all 5 guidance discovery scripts
• If both cached → skip Steps 4, 4b entirely for Q2

Then follow the same concurrent pattern as Step 3:

• Phase 1: Create ALL tasks (news with blockedBy + guidance without dependencies)
• Phase 2: Spawn BZ agents AND guidance agents in parallel
• Phase 3: Concurrent escalation loop - spawn WEB/PPX/JUDGE as they auto-unblock
• Phase 4: Collect all Q2 results (news from JUDGE-, guidance from GX-)

Use QUARTER={E2.fiscal_quarter}_FY{E2.fiscal_year} for all Q2 tasks.

Step 4b: Save Q2 Results

Same as Step 3b but for Q2:

NEWS RESULTS:

1. Append to earnings-analysis/Companies/{TICKER}/news.csv with quarter={E2.fiscal_quarter}_FY{E2.fiscal_year}
2. Append to news_processed.csv: {TICKER}|{E2.fiscal_quarter}|FY{E2.fiscal_year}|{today YYYY-MM-DD}

GUIDANCE RESULTS: 3. Append to earnings-analysis/Companies/{TICKER}/guidance.csv with quarter={E2.fiscal_quarter}_FY{E2.fiscal_year} 4. Append to guidance_processed.csv: {TICKER}|{E2.fiscal_quarter}|FY{E2.fiscal_year}|{today YYYY-MM-DD}

Step 5: Return Combined Results

=== EARNINGS ORCHESTRATOR: {TICKER} ===

--- EARNINGS DATA ---
E1: {accession} | {date} | FY{fiscal_year} {fiscal_quarter} | {daily_adj}% adj | vol={trailing_vol}% ({vol_days}d) {vol_status}
E2: {accession} | {date} | FY{fiscal_year} {fiscal_quarter} | {daily_adj}% adj | vol={trailing_vol}% ({vol_days}d) {vol_status}
...

--- Q1 NEWS ANALYSIS ({START} to {E1}) ---
Filter: |stock|>=4%, |adj|>=max(2×{trailing_vol}%,3%)
Significant dates: {count}

date|news_id|driver|attr_confidence|pred_confidence|daily_stock|daily_adj|market_session|source|external_research|source_pub_date|judge_notes
...

--- Q1 GUIDANCE EXTRACTION ---
Content sources processed: {total_sources}
  - exhibits: {exhibit_count}
  - sections: {section_count}
  - financial_stmt: {financial_stmt_count}
  - xbrl: {xbrl_count}
  - transcripts: {transcript_count}
  - news: {news_count}
Guidance entries found: {guidance_count}

quarter|period_type|fiscal_year|fiscal_quarter|segment|metric|low|mid|high|unit|basis|derivation|qualitative|source_type|source_id|source_key|given_date|section|quote
...

--- Q2 NEWS ANALYSIS ({E1} to {E2}) ---
Filter: |stock|>=4%, |adj|>=max(2×{trailing_vol}%,3%)
Significant dates: {count}

date|news_id|driver|attr_confidence|pred_confidence|daily_stock|daily_adj|market_session|source|external_research|source_pub_date|judge_notes
...

--- Q2 GUIDANCE EXTRACTION ---
Content sources processed: {total_sources}
  - exhibits: {exhibit_count}
  - sections: {section_count}
  - financial_stmt: {financial_stmt_count}
  - xbrl: {xbrl_count}
  - transcripts: {transcript_count}
  - news: {news_count}
Guidance entries found: {guidance_count}

quarter|period_type|fiscal_year|fiscal_quarter|segment|metric|low|mid|high|unit|basis|derivation|qualitative|source_type|source_id|source_key|given_date|section|quote
...

--- NEWS SUMMARY ---
Total dates analyzed: {N}
Explained by Benzinga: {B}
Explained by WebSearch: {W}
Explained by Perplexity: {P}
Still unknown (confidence=0): {U}
Validated by Judge: {J}

--- GUIDANCE SUMMARY ---
Total content sources processed: {total_sources}
  - exhibits: {exhibit_count}
  - sections: {section_count}
  - financial_stmt: {financial_stmt_count}
  - xbrl: {xbrl_count}
  - transcripts: {transcript_count}
  - news: {news_count}
Total guidance entries found: {total_guidance}

=== COMPLETE ===

Step 6: Signal Completion (Auto-Triggers Thinking Build)

echo "=== ORCHESTRATOR_COMPLETE {TICKER} $(date '+%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S') ==="

This command triggers the PostToolUse hook which automatically runs:

• build-news-thinking.py --ticker {TICKER}
• build-guidance-thinking.py --ticker {TICKER}

Thinking files appear in Obsidian at Companies/{TICKER}/thinking/{QUARTER}/ without explicit script calls.

Rules

• Full row replacement - When a later tier returns a result, use its COMPLETE output. PPX replaces WEB, WEB replaces BZ. Never mix fields across tiers. Judge outputs 12-field line.
• Always run get_earnings.py first - provides trailing_vol for each quarter
• Skip if done - check news_processed.csv, skip quarters already processed
• All sub-agents in parallel - spawn one per date, no cap
• Q1 complete before Q2 - finish all 4 tiers (BZ → WEB → PPX → JUDGE) + save for Q1, then Q2
• Extract date only - E1 date "2024-02-01T16:30:33-05:00" → use "2024-02-01"
• Preserve news_id EXACTLY - Copy URLs verbatim. NEVER shorten, summarize, or create short IDs. If sub-agent returns a URL, save the full URL exactly as returned.
• Pass through raw output - don't summarize or lose data
• Always save results - append to news.csv and mark done in news_processed.csv

Error Handling

Script errors return structured format: ERROR|CODE|MESSAGE|HINT

If any script returns ERROR:

1. Log the error in output
2. Try to continue with remaining steps if possible
3. Report all errors in summary

Example

Input: AAPL

Flow:

1. get_earnings.py AAPL → E1=2024-02-01 (Q1_FY2024, vol=0.90), E2=2024-05-02 (Q2_FY2024, vol=0.99)
2. Check news_processed.csv → no row for AAPL|Q1|FY2024 → process Q1
3. get_significant_moves.py AAPL 2023-11-01 2024-02-01 0.90 → internally: |stock|>=4%, |adj|>=max(2×0.90,3)=3%
4. Spawn news-driver-bz for each significant date → some explained (create JUDGE), some create WEB tasks
5. Spawn news-driver-web for each WEB task → some explained (create JUDGE), some create PPX tasks
6. Spawn news-driver-ppx for each PPX task → all create JUDGE tasks
7. Spawn news-driver-judge for each JUDGE task → validates and returns final confidence
8. Save Q1 to Companies/AAPL/news.csv (from JUDGE results), mark Q1_FY2024 done
9. Check news_processed.csv → row exists for AAPL|Q2|FY2024 → skip Q2
10. Return results (Q1 only, Q2 was cached)