Earnings Attribution Analysis

Goal: Determine WHY a stock moved after an 8-K filing by calculating the SURPRISE (actual vs expected).

Thinking: ALWAYS use ultrathink for maximum reasoning depth.

End Goal: Build company-specific driver understanding for real-time prediction accuracy.

Core Principles

1. Comprehensiveness Over Speed: Query ALL relevant data sources
2. Evidence-Based Claims Only: Every claim must cite a source
3. Surprise-Focused: Stock moves on actual vs expectations, not absolute results
4. Learn from History: Each analysis builds company-specific knowledge
5. Self-Audit: Validate all claims have sources before completing

Confidence Levels

• High: Multiple sources agree, clear fundamental reason, unambiguous evidence
• Medium: Sources partially agree, conclusion fits with caveats
• Insufficient: Sources conflict, missing critical data, no clear driver

If evidence is insufficient, say so. Never fabricate certainty.

Resources

• Neo4j schema & queries: neo4j_schema.md
• Output format: output_template.md
• Evidence audit checklist: evidence_audit.md
• Usage examples: examples.md
• Self-improvement: update-skills.md
• Known data gaps: data_gaps.md

Workflow (10 Steps)

Use TodoWrite to track progress. Mark each step in_progress before starting, completed immediately after.

Rules: Step 1 always first. Steps 2-5 case-by-case sequencing. Steps 6-10 sequential.

Step 1: Data Inventory

Query what data exists before making claims. See neo4j_schema.md for full query.

Check for: News count, Transcript exists, XBRL reports count, Dividends, Splits.

Step 2: Get Report and Returns

Get filing details and price reaction. See neo4j_schema.md for query.

Returns to capture:

• Macro-adjusted (vs SPY) - primary
• Sector-adjusted - context (may be null)
• Industry-adjusted - context (may be null)

Step 3: Get Consensus Estimates

Always query Perplexity - do not rely on Neo4j News for consensus.

mcp__perplexity__perplexity_search:
  query: "{ticker} Q{quarter} FY{year} EPS revenue estimate consensus before {date}"

Source preference for Evidence Ledger:

1. Best: Perplexity pre-filing search (explicit consensus before event)
2. Acceptable: News headline citing estimate (note: post-filing, weaker provenance)
3. Unacceptable: Unsourced or inferred values

If using News as consensus source, cite it accurately in Evidence Ledger—do not claim Perplexity in Data Sources Used.

Step 4: Query Neo4j Sources

Query based on Data Inventory results. See neo4j_schema.md for all queries.

4A: News

• Start ±2 trading days; expand to ±5 if <3 items
• Filter: WHERE r.daily_stock IS NOT NULL (data quality)
• Extract: EPS vs estimate, guidance, analyst reactions

4B: Transcript (Item 2.02 only)

• Get Prepared Remarks + Q&A exchanges
• Look for: analyst concerns, management hedging, specific numbers

4C: Historical XBRL

• Last 4 quarters of 10-K/10-Q data
• Look for: EPS trend, revenue trend, margin changes

4D: Dividends

• Cuts = bearish, Raises = bullish, Special = one-time

4E: Splits

• Rarely explain fundamental reactions

Step 5: Query Perplexity

Use when Neo4j doesn't provide complete picture.

Query Principles:

• Be specific about time (exact date, not "recently")
• Include company name AND ticker
• For consensus: specify fiscal quarter AND year
• For "why stock moved": include date AND direction

Step 6: Synthesize

Calculate SURPRISE for each metric using these exact formulas:

Surprise Calculation Formulas

EPS Surprise % = ((Actual - Consensus) / |Consensus|) × 100
Revenue Surprise % = ((Actual - Consensus) / |Consensus|) × 100

Guidance Surprise:

1. Calculate midpoint of guidance range: (Low + High) / 2
2. Compare to consensus: ((Midpoint - Consensus) / |Consensus|) × 100
3. If range width changed significantly, note this separately

Rounding: All percentages to 2 decimal places.

Example Calculation

Actual EPS: $2.03
Consensus EPS: $1.98
Surprise = (($2.03 - $1.98) / |$1.98|) × 100 = +2.53%

Guidance Range: $12.00 - $13.50
Midpoint: $12.75
Consensus: $13.22
Surprise = (($12.75 - $13.22) / |$13.22|) × 100 = -3.56%

Surprise Analysis Table

Rank surprises by absolute magnitude. Largest surprise typically explains the move.

Attribution Structure

Primary Driver (High Confidence)

• What: [Descriptive name]
• Surprise: Expected $X, Got $Y (Z% surprise)
• Evidence: [Source citation]

Contributing Factor(s) (if applicable)

• What: [Name]
• Evidence: [Source]

Evidence Extraction

Capture evidence immediately when reading each source. Populate the Evidence Ledger in output_template.md as you go; every numeric claim must appear there.

Strict Rules for Numbers (Used in Surprise Calculations)

Any number used to calculate surprise MUST have:

1. Exact value (not rounded or paraphrased)
2. Explicit source with timestamp/date
3. Format: {metric}: ${exact_value} (Source: {source_name}, {date})

Examples:

Consensus EPS: $1.98 (Source: Perplexity, pre-filing)
Actual EPS: $2.03 (Source: 8-K EX-99.1, 2023-11-02)
Guidance midpoint: $12.75 (Source: 8-K EX-99.1, calculated from $12.00-$13.50)

If you cannot cite exact value + source, do NOT use the number in surprise calculations.

Flexible Rules for Qualitative Evidence

For non-numeric observations, paraphrasing is acceptable with source:

Management tone: Cautious on near-term demand (Source: Transcript Q&A #3)
Analyst concern: Margin pressure (Source: News "ROK Beats but Guides Lower")

Sources: News: "{headline}", Transcript Q&A #N, Transcript Prepared Remarks, Exhibit EX-99.1, Perplexity search, XBRL: {report_id}

Output

See output_template.md for full report format.

Save to: drivers/Movers/Companies/{TICKER}/{accession_no}.md

Required sections:

1. Report Metadata
2. Returns Summary
3. Evidence Ledger
4. Executive Summary
5. Surprise Analysis
6. Attribution (Primary + Contributing)
7. Data Sources Used
8. Confidence Assessment
9. Historical Context

Core Rules

1. Data Inventory First: Know what data exists before making claims
2. Surprise-Based: Stock moves on actual vs expected
3. Evidence Required: Every claim needs a cited source
4. Perplexity for Consensus: Always query for market expectations
5. Self-Audit: Validate all claims have sources
6. Learn and Record: Store company-specific learnings
7. Honest Confidence: State "Insufficient" when evidence doesn't support
8. No XBRL for 8-K: Use historical 10-K/10-Q XBRL for trends

Perplexity Tools

Conflict Resolution Guidelines

When sources conflict, use these principles (guidelines, not rigid rules):

Source Reliability Hierarchy

Driver Priority (Typical, Not Absolute)

• Forward-looking (guidance) usually > Backward-looking (EPS)
• BUT: If EPS miss is >10%, it can dominate
• AND: Validate against actual price reaction direction

Conflict Handling

If News says "beat" but Transcript reveals "guidance cut":
→ Trust Transcript (higher reliability)
→ Note the conflict in analysis

If two News sources give different consensus numbers:
→ Use the one with explicit source attribution
→ If neither has clear attribution, note both values and the discrepancy
→ Do NOT average (averages have no direct source)

Rule: When in doubt, note the conflict explicitly rather than silently choosing one.

Data Quality Guardrails

News Anomaly Filter (REQUIRED)

~1,746 News→Company relationships (~0.9%) have daily_industry but no daily_stock. Always filter:

WHERE r.daily_stock IS NOT NULL

Missing Returns Handling

If a report has no return data (pf.daily_stock IS NULL):

• Flag as incomplete data
• Do NOT use for driver sensitivity calculations
• Can still analyze qualitatively

Duplicate News Detection

If multiple news items have nearly identical titles (>80% similarity):

• Use the earliest timestamp
• Treat as single data point, not confirmation

Stale Consensus Warning

When Perplexity returns consensus estimates:

• Verify the date/quarter matches your target
• "Q3 2023 consensus" is wrong if you need Q4 2023
• Re-query with more specific date if unclear

Company-Specific Learning

After each analysis, update: drivers/Movers/Companies/{TICKER}/learnings.md

See output_template.md for learnings format.

Gating rule: Only update learnings.md after the Evidence Ledger is complete and evidence_audit.md passes.

Step 10: Mark Completed

After successful analysis (report saved, audit passed, learnings updated):

1. Update tracking CSV: Set completed=TRUE for this accession_no in drivers/Movers/8k_fact_universe.csv
2. Verify: Confirm the row is updated correctly

This ensures the analysis pipeline tracks which filings have been processed.