Agent skill

circle_of_competence_enforcement

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npx add-skill https://github.com/colinalexander/buffet/tree/main/skills/circle_of_competence_enforcement

SKILL.md

SKILL: Circle of Competence Enforcement

Summary

Circle of Competence Enforcement is the skill of constraining judgment to domains where causal understanding is sufficient to support confident, durable decisions. It prioritizes knowability over cleverness and explicitly treats acknowledged ignorance as a strength rather than a weakness.

This skill defines what the system is permitted to judge.


Judgment Role

This skill functions as a domain admissibility constraint.

It determines whether a business, industry, or situation falls within the system’s knowable boundaries. Opportunities outside this boundary are excluded unless explicitly escalated with justification.


Judgment Checkpoints

Checkpoint 1: Causal Comprehensibility Test

Purpose:
Ensure the business can be understood end-to-end without reliance on opaque models or second-order speculation.

Key Questions:

  • Can causal drivers be explained in plain language?
  • What must be true for this business to succeed?
  • Where does understanding break down?

Required Evidence / Inputs:

  • Written causal explanation
  • Identification of unknowns

Expected Outputs:

  • Judgment Record affirming or rejecting comprehensibility

Failure Modes Guarded Against:

  • Mistaking familiarity for understanding
  • Outsourcing understanding to experts

Escalation Criteria:

  • Core drivers cannot be explained clearly

Checkpoint 2: Boundary Honesty Assessment

Purpose:
Force explicit acknowledgment of what is not understood.

Key Questions:

  • Which variables are outside our understanding?
  • Are unknowns central or peripheral?
  • Are we compensating appropriately for ignorance?

Required Evidence / Inputs:

  • Explicit unknowns list
  • Risk mitigation strategies

Expected Outputs:

  • Judgment Record documenting boundaries and unknowns

Failure Modes Guarded Against:

  • Hidden ignorance
  • Overconfidence

Escalation Criteria:

  • Unknowns dominate outcome distribution

Checkpoint 3: Monitoring Capability Verification

Purpose:
Ensure the business can be monitored for degradation of assumptions.

Key Questions:

  • What indicators signal deterioration?
  • Are indicators observable and timely?
  • Can changes be detected before damage is irreversible?

Required Evidence / Inputs:

  • Monitoring metrics and triggers
  • Historical early-warning signals

Expected Outputs:

  • Judgment Record affirming monitorability

Failure Modes Guarded Against:

  • Blind spots
  • Delayed reaction risk

Escalation Criteria:

  • No reliable way to monitor key assumptions

Authority Boundaries

  • Humans: Full authority to define competence boundaries.
  • Models: Advisory only; may summarize known vs unknown factors.
  • Prohibited: Models may not expand the circle autonomously.

This skill may veto opportunities regardless of valuation or attractiveness.


Time Horizon

  • Primary horizon: Persistent
  • Secondary horizon: Reassessed upon learning or structural change

Circle boundaries should expand slowly and contract quickly.


Interaction With Other Skills

Upstream (inputs from):

  • business_quality_assessment

Downstream (feeds into):

  • intrinsic_value_estimation
  • narrative_resistance
  • patience_as_active_strategy

Auditability & Records

  • Circle definitions documented explicitly
  • Boundary changes require justification
  • Escalations reviewed by senior authority
  • Records retained permanently

Common Misuse Patterns

  • Equating expertise access with understanding
  • Expanding the circle under performance pressure
  • Using complexity as justification

Versioning

  • Skill version: 1.0
  • Last reviewed: 2026-01-09
  • Change notes: Initial canonical definition

Notes

Knowing what you do not understand is a competitive advantage. This skill institutionalizes that insight.

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